Shiv Sena Split Could Hand BJP Key Majority in Lok Sabha

Six members of parliament from India's Shiv Sena (UBT) are preparing to form a breakaway group, a move that could deliver the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) the parliamentary numbers needed to advance a contentious delimitation bill. The defection, if confirmed, follows a broader pattern of political fragmentation, with 20 Trinamool Congress lawmakers having aligned with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) earlier this month.

What is happening within Shiv Sena (UBT)?

Six Shiv Sena (UBT) parliamentarians are expected to meet Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla in Delhi to submit a formal letter requesting recognition as a separate group. Those named include Sanjay Jadhav, Bhausaheb Wakchaure, Sanjay Deshmukh, Nagesh Patil Ashtikar, Sanjay Patil, and Omraje Nimbalkar.

Jadhav is likely to be elected leader of the new group before it merges with the Shinde-led Shiv Sena faction. The six lawmakers were reportedly at an undisclosed location in Delhi, while Eknath Shinde was also present in the national capital.

Shinde replaced Uddhav Thackeray as Maharashtra chief minister in June 2022 after splitting the original Shiv Sena, with the BJP's support. He now serves as deputy chief minister in the BJP-led coalition that returned to power in Maharashtra in 2024.

Why does this split matter for the delimitation bill?

The Shiv Sena (UBT) fragmentation comes days after 20 Trinamool Congress parliamentarians defected to the BJP-led NDA. The NDA government requires a two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha to pass the delimitation bill. It is currently short of 46 votes.

The TMC played a decisive role in defeating the constitution amendment bill for delimitation earlier this year. The ongoing realignment of parliamentary loyalties directly alters the legislative arithmetic that determines whether the bill can pass.

How is Shiv Sena (UBT) responding to the defections?

Parliamentary party chief Arvind Sawant has issued a whip requiring all nine Lok Sabha members and one Rajya Sabha member to attend a meeting on Thursday. In a letter to Speaker Birla, Sawant requested that no breakaway group be recognized, stating that Shiv Sena (UBT) remains a single political party with a duly authorized leader and whip.

Sawant wrote that no separate recognition, status, privilege, or facility should be accorded to any purported faction claiming to represent the party. He insisted that no decision be taken without first allowing Shiv Sena (UBT) to present its submissions.

Rajya Sabha member Sanjay Raut told reporters in Delhi that those who defy the whip will face legal action.

All nine MPs were elected on the symbol of Shiv Sena (UBT) and in the name of Uddhav Thackeray. They have no right to betray the party.

Raut alleged that each defecting lawmaker was offered 50 crore rupees, with 15 crore paid in advance. He claimed the legislators refused to board chartered planes until they received payment.

What has the BJP said about the split?

Maharashtra minister and BJP leader Chandrashekhar Bawankule stated the party had no involvement in the potential split.

We do not know anything about it.

The denial follows a familiar pattern in Indian politics, where ruling parties have consistently distanced themselves from engineering defections even as opposition ranks have thinned. The institutional erosion of party discipline, enabled by the lure of office and resources, raises questions about the stability of democratic structures when loyalty becomes a commodity.

Will the Shiv Sena (UBT) split guarantee passage of the delimitation bill?

Not necessarily. Even with the defection of six Shiv Sena (UBT) lawmakers, the NDA remains short of the two-thirds majority required. The final outcome depends on further political realignments and whether additional opposition members shift their allegiance.

Can Shiv Sena (UBT) prevent its members from defecting?

The party has issued a whip and written to the Lok Sabha Speaker requesting that no breakaway group be recognized. The final decision on recognition rests with the Speaker, who must weigh the competing claims before allowing any formal split.