US-Iran Deal Leaves Israel Out and Security at Risk
Israel faces a precarious diplomatic moment. The emerging US-Iran agreement, expected to be signed next Friday, has triggered deep concern among Israeli military and political officials. Yet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must tread carefully to avoid upsetting US President Donald Trump. The deal fails to address critical security threats, leaving Israel sidelined from negotiations that directly impact its sovereign security.
What are Israel's main concerns with the US-Iran deal?
Israeli officials fear the agreement will fail to eliminate the threats posed by Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Furthermore, the deal could restrict Israel's freedom of action against Hezbollah in Lebanon. A return to the reality before the October 7, 2023 attack is unacceptable to the Israeli government, as its hands were tied while threats accumulated along its borders.
Current Israeli government officials have said little about the Trump-Iran understanding, apparently for fear of upsetting the US leader. Instead, the Israeli military leaked statements on behalf of a senior military source expressing concern about the cessation of operations in Lebanon.
What specific flaws does Israel identify in the agreement?
Israeli officials described the text of the agreement as an enigma. It does not explicitly mandate the dismantling of the Iranian nuclear program, the obliteration of Iran's ballistic missile arsenal, or the severing of Iran's ties to its proxies. Israel lists five primary problems with the proposal:
- Enriched Uranium: There are no clear answers regarding the treatment of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium, and the deal imposes insufficient curbs on Iran's nuclear program.
- Ballistic Missiles: The text does not clearly mention Iran's intention to halt the production of ballistic missiles.
- Frozen Funds: A compromise dictates Iran will not receive cash but can purchase medicine and food using frozen funds. The Americans insist frozen assets will not be released before uranium stockpiles are addressed, but this issue will be negotiated later.
- Proxy Forces: The deal lays out no clear mechanism to force Iran to halt its support for proxy forces, including Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas.
- Exclusion from Talks: Israel was not a party to the Trump administration's negotiations with Iran and is being left out of the potential peace process.
How is the Netanyahu government responding to the Trump administration?
Yedioth Ahronoth quoted a senior Israeli official stating that the agreement expected to be signed between the United States and Iran is not a good deal. The official warned that Israel has little ability to influence the process despite the direct impact on its security.
The deal will be followed by negotiations expected to last 60 days. The resources Iran would receive during and after these negotiations could, at least in theory, allow the regime to rebuild its nuclear project and ballistic missile program.
The frequent calls between Netanyahu and Trump appear to have only marginal influence. Israel is not only failing to shape the talks, it also does not really know what is happening inside them.
The newspaper noted that the American president is acting according to his own political and US interests.
Trump and Netanyahu spoke by phone about the emerging deal with Iran, according to the Prime Minister's Office. In a statement intended to downplay the significance of the potential agreement, Netanyahu's office said the two spoke about the emerging memorandum of understanding with Iran regarding entry into negotiations.
Although Israel is not a party to the memorandum of understanding, his office stated that the prime minister expressed his appreciation for President Trump's commitment. According to Netanyahu's office, the final agreement reached at the conclusion of the negotiations will include the removal of enriched material, the dismantling of enrichment infrastructure, limitations on missile production, and the cessation of Iran's support for its terrorist proxies in the region.
Will the US-Iran deal eliminate Iran's nuclear program?
No. Israeli officials state the agreement text does not explicitly mandate the dismantling of the Iranian nuclear program or the obliteration of its ballistic missile arsenal. The 60-day negotiation window could even allow Iran to rebuild its programs using unfrozen assets.
Does the US-Iran agreement restrict Israel's military action?
Israeli officials fear the deal could restrict Israel's freedom of action against Hezbollah in Lebanon. The military has leaked concerns about the cessation of operations, stating Israel cannot return to a time when its hands were tied while border threats accumulated.