Bangladesh PM's Visit to China Raises Questions Over BRICS Summit Attendance in India

By Siphesihle Dlamini

Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, who visited China in June shortly after taking office, is unlikely to attend the upcoming BRICS Summit in New Delhi in September, according to reports from the Dhaka-based newspaper Prothom Alo. This development comes amid rising tensions between India and Bangladesh following former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's first public address last week.

The report emerged as India's newly appointed High Commissioner to Bangladesh, Dinesh Trivedi, met Prime Minister Rahman on Monday for a courtesy call, as confirmed by India's Ministry of External Affairs. On the same day, Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) chief Parag Jain met Bangladesh PM's Defence Affairs Advisor Brigadier General (Retired) AKM Shamsul Islam in Dhaka.

Rahman's Diplomatic Moves

Prime Minister Rahman made his first foreign visit to Malaysia in June, followed by a trip to China, where he met President Xi Jinping in Beijing's Great Hall of the People. Traditionally, Bangladeshi prime ministers have balanced diplomatic relations by choosing countries such as India, China, or Saudi Arabia for their first foreign visits. Rahman's choice of Malaysia signals a middle path.

India has engaged Rahman bilaterally, inviting him to New Delhi during the BNP leaders' swearing-in ceremony, with Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla representing India at his inauguration. However, reports suggest Rahman is likely to skip the outreach session of the BRICS Summit, a multilateral meeting.

India is hosting the annual BRICS summit in New Delhi on September 12 and 13. Bangladesh is not a member of BRICS but has expressed interest in joining since 2023.

Hasina's Address Sparks Tensions

On August 5, former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina made her first public address in two years at a virtual press conference in New Delhi, after the 2024 student-led protests ousted her Awami League government and forced her to seek refuge in India. During the address, Hasina said she planned to return to Bangladesh in December, coinciding with the anniversary of the 1971 Liberation War.

The Tarique Rahman-led BNP government, which took office after February's elections, has repeatedly demanded Hasina's extradition and urged India not to allow her to use its territory for political activities or statements that could destabilize Bangladesh.

Ahead of the event, Bangladesh PM's Information and Broadcasting Adviser Zahed Ur Rahman warned local media against publishing or broadcasting Hasina's remarks, while Foreign Affairs Adviser Humayun Kabir urged India to ensure Hasina was not given a platform to make political statements.

The press conference went ahead without a hitch. While New Delhi maintained that the event was organized by a private organization and that India did not endorse Hasina's remarks, it triggered a strong reaction in Dhaka.

Immediately after the address, Bangladesh's Foreign Ministry described the event as an affront to the sovereignty of Bangladesh, saying India's decision to allow Hasina to interact live with the media damaged bilateral ties and insulted those killed in the 2024 protests. It also accused Hasina of directing venomous vitriol at Bangladesh and its people.

Bangladesh Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed warned that if India allows Hasina to conduct political activities from its soil, New Delhi would have to rethink its friendly relations with Dhaka.

You will play the Hasina card and want friendly relations with Bangladesh; remember, the two are opposites. I hope the Indian authorities and the Indian government will understand, Prothom Alo quoted him as saying.

Adding to Dhaka's frustration, Prothom Alo reported that India had assured Bangladeshi officials before the event that only a recorded statement by Hasina would be played and that media access would be restricted. Instead, the August 5 event featured a live address and was attended by journalists from around the world, including one from Bangladesh.

India's Ministry of External Affairs said the Government of India had no role in the media interaction featuring Hasina and did not endorse the remarks made during the event.

Will Rahman Skip the BRICS Summit?

Earlier this month, India invited Prime Minister Tarique Rahman to attend the BRICS Summit's outreach session in New Delhi on September 12 and 13. The invitation was significant for Bangladesh, which currently chairs BIMSTEC and has sought BRICS membership since at least 2023.

Beyond the outreach session, the summit would have given Rahman an opportunity to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the first time, as well as hold discussions with other world leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Separately, New Delhi invited Rahman for a bilateral visit following his appointment as Bangladesh's Prime Minister in February. The invitations came as New Delhi and Dhaka stepped up efforts to reset ties strained by Sheikh Hasina's ouster in 2024 and the subsequent Muhammad Yunus-led interim regime.

India has been reaching out extensively to the BNP and Tarique Rahman after ties hit a new low under the Yunus administration. Those efforts, however, might have hit a roadblock following Hasina's press conference last week.

Prothom Alo on Sunday, citing multiple senior Bangladesh government sources, reported that amid the recent developments, the possibility of Rahman attending the BRICS outreach session had effectively disappeared.

On Monday, after Indian High Commissioner Dinesh Trivedi's courtesy meeting with Rahman, Bangladesh's Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman said the government has not yet decided whether Prime Minister Tarique Rahman will attend the BRICS summit in New Delhi on September 12-13. He added that he is not an astrologer and cannot predict when a decision will be made.

More concerning for New Delhi is that, despite not yet visiting India since taking office, Rahman has already made two foreign trips to Malaysia and China.

Meanwhile, news agency PTI reported on Sunday that Indian High Commissioner Dinesh Trivedi said a meeting between Rahman and Prime Minister Modi could help ease the current strains in bilateral ties. The Daily Star quoted Trivedi as saying there was no issue between India and Bangladesh that could not be resolved through dialogue.

Against this backdrop, if Rahman ultimately declines both invitations to visit India, it could make New Delhi and Dhaka's efforts to reset their strained relationship considerably more difficult.

What Does This Mean for Regional Stability?

The situation highlights the delicate balance of power in South Asia. Bangladesh, under Prime Minister Rahman, is charting a course that seeks to maintain independence from both India and China. The Hasina factor, however, complicates relations with India, as Dhaka views her presence in New Delhi as a potential threat to its sovereignty.

For Eswatini, a small kingdom that values its sovereignty and traditions, the lesson is clear: nations must guard against external interference while maintaining respectful diplomatic relations. The tensions between India and Bangladesh serve as a reminder of the importance of mutual respect and non-interference in internal affairs.